Search results for " 60G10"
showing 4 items of 4 documents
Futures pricing in electricity markets based on stable CARMA spot models
2012
We present a new model for the electricity spot price dynamics, which is able to capture seasonality, low-frequency dynamics and the extreme spikes in the market. Instead of the usual purely deterministic trend we introduce a non-stationary independent increments process for the low-frequency dynamics, and model the large uctuations by a non-Gaussian stable CARMA process. The model allows for analytic futures prices, and we apply these to model and estimate the whole market consistently. Besides standard parameter estimation, an estimation procedure is suggested, where we t the non-stationary trend using futures data with long time until delivery, and a robust L 1 -lter to nd the states of …
Self-stabilizing processes: uniqueness problem for stationary measures and convergence rate in the small-noise limit
2011
In the context of self-stabilizing processes, that is processes attracted by their own law, living in a potential landscape, we investigate different properties of the invariant measures. The interaction between the process and its law leads to nonlinear stochastic differential equations. In [S. Herrmann and J. Tugaut. Electron. J. Probab. 15 (2010) 2087–2116], the authors proved that, for linear interaction and under suitable conditions, there exists a unique symmetric limit measure associated to the set of invariant measures in the small-noise limit. The aim of this study is essentially to point out that this statement leads to the existence, as the noise intensity is small, of one unique…
Variable Length Memory Chains: Characterization of stationary probability measures
2021
Variable Length Memory Chains (VLMC), which are generalizations of finite order Markov chains, turn out to be an essential tool to modelize random sequences in many domains, as well as an interesting object in contemporary probability theory. The question of the existence of stationary probability measures leads us to introduce a key combinatorial structure for words produced by a VLMC: the Longest Internal Suffix. This notion allows us to state a necessary and sufficient condition for a general VLMC to admit a unique invariant probability measure. This condition turns out to get a much simpler form for a subclass of VLMC: the stable VLMC. This natural subclass, unlike the general case, enj…
Characterization of stationary probability measures for Variable Length Markov Chains
2020
By introducing a key combinatorial structure for words produced by a Variable Length Markov Chain (VLMC), the longest internal suffix, precise characterizations of existence and uniqueness of a stationary probability measure for a VLMC chain are given. These characterizations turn into necessary and sufficient conditions for VLMC associated to a subclass of probabilised context trees: the shift-stable context trees. As a by-product, we prove that a VLMC chain whose stabilized context tree is again a context tree has at most one stationary probability measure.